At least 94 million people in Europe are expected to face temperatures over 35°C on Wednesday, with the majority in France and Spain, according to AFP calculations. This heatwave will impact more than 350 million people across Europe, excluding Turkey, with temperatures above 30°C. This represents nearly two-thirds of the population, based on forecasts from the German weather service (DWD) and 2025 population projections from the Joint Research Centre.
Widespread Impact Across Europe
The figures align with projections from the Austrian NGO Klimadashboard, indicating that over 90 million people in the European Union will be affected by temperatures exceeding 35°C. Specifically, 50 million in France and 20 million in Spain are expected to experience extreme heat. Almost all residents of mainland France and around 38 million people in Spain will face temperatures above 30°C on Wednesday.
Additional Countries Affected
Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Germany, and Hungary are also expected to be significantly affected by the heatwave. AFP used a method similar to Klimadashboard, cross-referencing the DWD weather forecast model with population density to determine the affected areas.
Urban Heat Islands and Underestimations
Residents are counted if the model predicts temperatures exceeding 30°C or 35°C at their location at any point during the day. However, the model, with a resolution of approximately 6.5 km, cannot fully capture urban heat islands. David Jablonski of the NGO Klimadashboard noted that 'we likely underestimate affected people in dense urban areas.'
Methodology and Projections
The analysis is based on forecasts from the German weather service and population projections from the Joint Research Centre. The projections show a significant impact on the European population, highlighting the need for preparedness and response measures to mitigate the effects of extreme heat.
