Oil prices surged more than one percent towards $100 on Wednesday as a fresh flare-up in the Middle East crisis stoked supply concerns and fanned inflation fears. The escalating conflict between the US and Iran, now in its seventh month, has shown no signs of abating despite White House claims of an imminent deal. Investors are growing increasingly anxious that the Federal Reserve may need to hike interest rates to cap surging consumer prices.
Tehran maintains a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for the world's oil and gas, while Washington pushes a campaign to choke Iran's ports and economy. Iran announced it had struck a US military base in Jordan following American attacks on its vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, Iran threatened to target oil tankers off Kuwait and Bahrain, urging crews to abandon their ships.
Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia have also exchanged strikes, with the rebels targeting oil facilities in an offensive towards the Red Sea's Bab al-Mandab chokepoint. This waterway has become increasingly important for Saudi oil with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut. Both main crude contracts jumped more than one percent, with Brent hitting as high as $99.67 and West Texas Intermediate heading towards $95.
The surge in energy costs has kept inflation elevated globally, putting pressure on central banks to hike borrowing costs. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates on Thursday, with all focus on the release of the US consumer price index on Friday. This data is seen as crucial in determining whether the Fed will lift rates next week.
Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at FOREX.com, noted that the continuing conflict in the Middle East is keeping concerns over supply disruptions alive, worrying investors about the inflationary consequences of elevated oil prices. He added that a sustained rise in oil prices could reverse the progress on inflation that policymakers have been relying on to justify lower interest rates, while simultaneously squeezing consumers and businesses.
The prospect of higher borrowing costs is weighing on equities, with all three main indexes dropping on Wall Street. Asian markets fluctuated, though tech firms continued to recover from July's rout as the AI boom returns to the fore. Seoul led the gainers as chipmaker SK hynix rallied more than three percent and Samsung more than one percent. Tokyo, Shanghai, Taipei and Manila also advanced, though Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington and Jakarta edged down.
