In a state that has shifted sharply to the right over the past decade, Florida's primary elections held significant implications for both major parties. Once a key swing state, Florida has become a Republican stronghold, with President Donald Trump carrying it by 13 points in 2024 and Republicans dominating statewide offices. However, Democrats see an opportunity to make gains, particularly in the House of Representatives, where they need a net gain of only three seats nationally to retake the majority in November.
The primary elections in Florida are crucial for Democrats, who are looking to reclaim some ground in a state that has become increasingly Republican. The mid-decade redistricting pushed through by Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has created four clear opportunities for the party to flip Democratic-held House seats. This redistricting has forced several Democratic incumbents into significantly more Republican territory, triggering a scramble for safer seats.
One early upset came in the Democratic Senate primary, where left-wing state legislator Angie Nixon beat retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, to go up against Republican Ashley Moody for the seat. Trump called Vindman, who was a central witness in the president's first impeachment, a 'SleazeBag' in a Truth Social post celebrating his electoral loss. Florida Democrats are also looking for evidence that they can again compete statewide. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, now a Democrat and prominent Trump critic, is favored for his party's gubernatorial nomination.
Republicans are widely expected to choose Trump-backed congressman Byron Donalds to succeed term-limited DeSantis, making him a strong favorite to become Florida's first Black governor. He faces a challenge from businessman James Fishback, a white candidate who has been criticized for racially tinged remarks. Republicans also face several contentious House primaries, with candidates including a lawmaker who denies allegations of assault and revenge porn threats, an Israel supporter criticized for anti-Muslim rhetoric, and a social media personality who has run an openly anti-Semitic campaign.
Florida is not the only state voting on this primary day. Alaska is holding primaries for Senate and House, while Wyoming Republicans are choosing nominees for governor, Senate and an open House seat. California voters are also deciding, via a special congressional election, between two Democrats vying to replace Eric Swalwell, who quit the House in April amid allegations of sexual misconduct that he denies. The race has pulled in millions of dollars in outside spending from groups linked to the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC.
