Germany faces a landmark regional election on Sunday in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised for a historic victory. The AfD, led by its top candidate Ulrich Siegmund, has consistently polled at over 40 percent in the state and is eyeing its first state government. A win for the AfD would heap pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz and signal a significant boost for the anti-immigration party.
AfD's Campaign Promises
The AfD's campaign in Saxony-Anhalt has focused on several controversial promises. Siegmund has advocated for an immediate "remigration and deportation" offensive targeting irregular migrants, a ban on LGBTQ pride rainbow flags at public schools, and an end to new wind farms. The party has also tapped into nostalgia for the communist era and resentment over the wealth gap between east and west Germany.
Political Landscape and Challenges
The incumbent state premier, Sven Schulze of Chancellor Merz's centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has warned voters against the far right, stating that it "leads into the ditch." Despite the AfD's strong polling, the party faces challenges in forming a government. Smaller parties must cross Germany's five percent hurdle to enter parliament, which could complicate the AfD's path to power.
Implications for National Politics
A victory for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt would be a significant blow to Chancellor Merz, who has struggled to halt the party's rise. Political analyst Oliver Lembcke noted that such a win would signify a failure of the "firewall" strategy, which aims to prevent mainstream parties from cooperating with the AfD. The outcome could also influence national politics, with Siegmund hoping to use a state victory to propel the AfD to national victory in 2029.
Social and Political Divisions
The potential AfD victory has sparked fears of increased social and political divisions in Germany. Many Germans are wary of the party's rhetoric and policies, given the country's history. Germany's domestic intelligence agency BfV categorizes the AfD's state branch as a "right-wing extremist" organization, documenting instances of language that demonizes migrants and brands Muslim refugees as criminals.






