A rare train of powerful cyclones is moving across the Pacific Ocean, fueled by an exceptionally strong El Nino. Two hurricanes, Lowell and Karina, and Tropical Storm Marie are currently churning through the Pacific, with waters being warmed by the historic El Nino climate episode.
Cyclones Intensify as They Move West
Hurricane Lowell has intensified to a Category 5 storm as it moves west, followed by Hurricane Karina, a Category 4 storm. Both are expected to pass well to the south and northeast of Hawaii, respectively, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Lowell's swells are spreading northward and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several days.
El Nino's Role in Cyclone Formation
The current El Nino warming is setting the stage for these storms, which are fueled in large part by warm waters. When the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, an increase in strong storms is observed. Tropical Storm Marie, currently south of Baja California, is expected to become a hurricane later today.
Historical Context and Future Projections
A similar train of four cyclones occurred in 2015, another intense El Nino year. This year's El Nino has a 69 percent chance of becoming the strongest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The sea surface temperature anomaly is already near record high, right in the middle of the Pacific hurricane season.
Global Impacts of El Nino
El Nino is the warming phase of a natural cycle in the tropical Pacific known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It sets in when east-to-west trade winds ease, allowing warm water to slide back east and rise to the surface. This year's El Nino is already unleashing extreme weather across the globe, affecting regions like Peru and Sudan.