The Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) has reported that Bangladesh's economy displayed signs of gradual stabilization in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2026 (FY26). This stabilization was driven by stronger remittance inflows, a significant buildup of foreign exchange reserves, easing inflation, and a rebound in exports during June. However, economic activity remained subdued overall.
Economic Indicators Point to Stabilization
According to the latest Review of Economic Situation in Bangladesh, provisional estimates put the country's FY26 GDP growth at 4.14 percent, up from 3.49 percent in FY25. The external sector emerged as the strongest source of stability during the quarter. Bangladesh received US$9.38 billion in remittances during April-June of FY26, while gross foreign exchange reserves rose to US$37.58 billion at the end of June from US$34.48 billion at the end of May.
The country also recorded a record overall balance of payments surplus of US$6.61 billion in FY26, up 94.69 percent from US$3.39 billion in FY25. The financial account increased sharply to US$7.89 billion from US$3.60 billion a year earlier, helping offset the widening current account deficit. Foreign exchange market conditions showed greater stability, with Bangladesh Bank buying a net US$6.43 billion from the foreign exchange market during FY26, compared with a net sale of US$503.38 million in FY25.
Inflation and Exports Show Improvement
Inflation, although still high, also moved in a favourable direction in June. Headline inflation declined to 9.16 percent from 9.42 percent in May, while food inflation fell to 8.60 percent from 9.06 percent. Non-food inflation also eased marginally to 9.61 percent from 9.71 percent. The average general inflation during FY26 was 8.68 percent, lower than 10.03 percent recorded a year earlier.
Exports provided another positive signal toward the end of the fiscal year. Merchandise exports rose 24.93 percent year-on-year to US$4.19 billion in June, although total FY26 exports increased only marginally by 0.17 percent to US$48.38 billion. Imports increased by 10.07 percent to US$75.24 billion in FY26, largely reflecting improved foreign exchange market conditions and higher imports of intermediate goods, particularly those linked to the readymade garment sector.
The report also noted that industrial term-loan disbursement increased 21.08 percent year-on-year to Tk 23,748 crore during January-March of FY26, while agricultural and non-farm rural credit disbursement rose 14.76 percent to Tk 42,834.16 crore during FY26. However, the report cautioned that the stabilization remained fragile, with high inflation, weak private investment and credit growth, subdued exports, fiscal constraints, and vulnerabilities in the banking sector continuing to weigh on the economy.
