Bhutan is offering families cash incentives to have more children as the tiny Himalayan kingdom grapples with a nosediving birthrate and a growing exodus of young people seeking opportunities abroad. Annual births have dropped by more than a quarter over the past decade, compounding the country's loss of youngsters to migration.
Existential Crisis
Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay has repeatedly rung the alarm over the population slump, calling it an "existential" crisis. "The evidence is unambiguous -- Bhutan's fertility has declined to near or below replacement level," Tobgay wrote in the introduction to the government's "Third Child Plus" programme, launched in June.
Cash Incentives
The scheme provides monthly payments of $105 for each third or subsequent child until they turn three. Khandu Wangmo, a 35-year-old civil servant, welcomed the incentive but questioned whether cash payments alone would persuade families to have more children.
Demographic Shifts
Bhutan's fertility rate has fallen to about 1.8 children per woman, below the replacement level, while the share of people aged 65 and over is projected to rise from around six percent to 17 percent by 2050, according to UN estimates. The government fears that falling births, combined with sustained outward migration, will leave too few working-age people to support the economy and an ageing population.
Migration and Economic Pressures
More than 71,000 Bhutanese were abroad as of May 2026, with 39,000 -- about 55 percent of the overseas population -- in Australia. The UN Population Fund advocates for expanding choices through affordable childcare and supportive social policies, rather than simply raising birth numbers.
Historical Context
Bhutan once promoted family planning through its "Small Family, Happy Family" campaign launched in 1974, helping drive fertility down over several decades. The 1990s saw an exodus of more than 100,000 ethnic Nepali-speakers as the kingdom tightened immigration policies. Now, policymakers are seeking to reverse that trend.
Future Implications
Tobgay, addressing parliament in June, cited overseas migration as Bhutan's "most pressing challenge", saying that strengthening the economy, creating quality jobs and improving living conditions were essential to slowing the exodus. Anthropologist Shawn Rowlands questioned whether a declining population should automatically be viewed as a crisis in a country known for prioritising "Gross National Happiness" over economic growth.
