At least 191 million people are forecast to endure temperatures of at least 35C on Sunday in Europe, with the heat particularly intense in Germany, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland, according to estimates. A total of 381 million people in Europe, excluding Turkey, will see temperatures surpass 30C.
Regions Most Affected
Almost all of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic are expected to see temperatures rise above 35C on Sunday, as are 42 million people across much of Germany, particularly in the Berlin area. Slovakia, Serbia, Croatia, Italy, Austria, and western Ukraine will also be affected.
Methodology and Data Sources
The figures were tabulated using a method similar to that of Klimadashboard, cross-referencing the 0300 GMT weather forecast model from the German meteorological service (DWD) with population density data. Residents of an area are counted if the model forecasts temperatures exceeding 30C or 35C at that location at any point.
As the model is accurate within a range of around 6.5 kilometres (4 miles), it cannot fully reflect urban heat islands, according to David Jablonski of the NGO Klimadashboard. Consequently, the analysis 'probably underestimates the number of people affected in densely populated urban areas', the organisation states on its European Heat Tracker website.
Current Situation in France
In mainland France, where red alerts were expected to be lifted on Sunday evening, some 11 million people will be affected by the heat.
