Global investment in critical minerals fell by nine percent in 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported. This decline occurred despite Western nations' efforts to increase domestic production for national security reasons. The geographic concentration of supply chains for high-tech, aerospace, and clean energy industries has further narrowed, particularly in refining.
China and Indonesia, the top refining nations, accounted for over three-quarters of total growth in refined supply over the past two years. Geopolitical tensions and price volatility are cited as reasons for the drop in investment in mining and refining of critical minerals.
Tim Gould, the IEA's chief economist, noted that concerns about high supply concentration have become an immediate economic security challenge. The proliferation of export controls, particularly by China, has created significant economic and security challenges.
China's rare earth export controls introduced in April 2025 forced some automakers to reduce production or temporarily suspend operations. The IEA warned that if China expands export controls, an estimated $6.5 trillion in annual downstream production outside China could be jeopardized.
Despite these challenges, the IEA highlighted improvements such as public financing commitments, which more than quadrupled between 2023 and 2025. The United States and Malaysia are making strides in reducing China's dominance in refining rare earths.
