The top leadership of Awami League remains steadfast in its old position, showing no signs of change or reform. The idea of a'refined' or 'purified' Awami League, proposed by some as the best option for the party to remain politically active, has been outright rejected by the party's top leadership, especially Sheikh Hasina.
This situation has left many party leaders and workers uncertain about the party's political return, with some expressing frustration. Others believe that if the current government makes significant mistakes or becomes unpopular, it could create an opportunity for Awami League's resurgence.
Sources within the party indicate that before the 13th National Parliament election in February, the idea of reform through less controversial leadership was proposed to Sheikh Hasina by friendly countries and well-wishers. However, she refused to step down as party president. Post-election, the reform idea has been deemed 'dead' as Sheikh Hasina showed no interest in it.
Currently, the most controversial and extremist members within the party are the most active, showing no willingness to admit mistakes or express remorse for past actions. Instead, they aim to create tension through sporadic rallies and slogans, and promote anti-government sentiments within the administration. This has led to disappointment among those hoping for a 'refined' or fresh start for the party.
Sheikh Hasina herself is determining the party's policies, with family members involved. Party leaders Jahangir Kabir Nanak and AFM Bahauddin Nasim are actively organizing leaders and workers in hiding within the country. A former important minister, currently in Kolkata, is coordinating with party-affiliated individuals within various government organizations. Former Information Minister Mohammad Arafat, Department Secretary Biplob Barua, and other leaders are involved in communication and 'soft' activities with foreign organizations. The rest are participating in online discussions with party leaders.
Some party leaders believe that the reluctance to reform has made friendly countries and well-wishers somewhat unhappy. They do not expect any foreign power to push for Awami League's political return. The current BNP-led government is unlikely to allow the return of the old Awami League under Sheikh Hasina's leadership. Waiting for another mass uprising or expecting a rift between the ruling BNP and opposition parties Jamaat-e-Islami and Jatiya Party seems unrealistic. Thus, Awami League's current political stance appears aimless.
In this situation, some within Awami League consider joining other parties to maintain local presence during elections. Discussions with multiple party leaders reveal that after the 13th Parliament election in February, Sheikh Hasina often told party members who wished to continue politics to return to the country and face legal challenges. However, no one has responded to this directive, and there is no guarantee of bail if arrested. The government has not shown any inclination to compromise or initiate efforts to allow Awami League's political return.
Party leaders do not believe there is any international pressure on the government to allow Awami League's political participation. Consequently, leaders abroad are not considering returning to the country. Some have even moved to other countries to avoid pressure to return, with two influential former MPs reportedly relocating to Malaysia and Cyprus, fearing India may not be safe due to improved relations with the BNP government.
Awami League, which had been in power for 15.5 years, fell in the 2024 student-mass uprising. Party chief Sheikh Hasina and most leaders are in hiding abroad, while a significant portion of those in the country are in prison. The interim government has banned the party's activities, a prohibition not lifted by the BNP government. Thus, Awami League has not only lost power but also organizational strength, political standing, and control on the ground.
In this crisis, the idea of a'refined' or purified Awami League emerged, essentially a proposal to restructure the party with relatively acceptable, less controversial, and 'clean image' leaders, excluding the current controversial leadership.
The rationale behind this idea is that returning to politics directly with the current leadership, given the accusations, controversies, and political liabilities, is difficult. A visible message of change is necessary for acceptance by the international community and a significant portion of the country. Additionally, Awami League's current president, Sheikh Hasina, is over 80 years old and has led the party for over four decades. Political analysts believe her return to politics is challenging, making leadership change a viable option for organizing the party for the future.
The concept of a 'refined' Awami League first surfaced in March last year during the interim government. National Citizen Party's chief organizer (South) and current MP Hasanat Abdullah mentioned it in a Facebook post, alleging a plot by senior army officers. He claimed the plan was entirely Indian, involving Saber Hossain Chowdhury, Shirin Sharmin Chaudhury, and Fazle Noor Taposh.
Subsequently, the issue was discussed on social media and resurfaced after the BNP government formation. However, the main message was that Sheikh Hasina did not support the'refined' Awami League or that such efforts were unsuccessful.
Unnamed Awami League leaders in the country and abroad stated that the party's extremists believe there is no alternative to Sheikh Hasina within Awami League. If an alternative is to be found, it must come from her family, though no suitable candidate exists, and the current time is not favorable for such an initiative. The extremists' view is to first obtain permission for Awami League's activities, followed by party reform, retaining Sheikh Hasina and excluding other controversial figures while bringing in new leaders.
Leaders abroad often communicate with those in the country via phone, with most expressing frustration about their situation. Two central leaders in India and Europe recently discussed their predicament, noting that neither a life of luxury nor substantial financial gain is possible while staying away from politics. Many in India, particularly in Kolkata, are financially struggling.
Sources indicate that former MPs with businesses in the country, leaders with families abroad, and many senior leaders are considering political inactivity. Business-involved former MPs or leaders are considering returning if assured of bail upon arrival.
